Airbus industrial company in the global 228 large airlines and 49 subsidiaries and 187 air freight enterprise in detail on the basis of investigation, for the future of world aviation fleet of aircraft more than 70 seats, passenger/cargo mixed and winch demand is forecasted. Main forecast results are as follows. The volume of passenger traffic growth and the demand of passenger by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and the influences of air fare falling drive, in the forecast period the first 10 years, the world aviation passenger completed (charge passenger kilometers), with an average annual growth rate of 5.2%. Along with the market gradually mature, after 10 years of development speed slow, at 4.6%. Therefore, in the whole of the 20th year forecast period, the global aviation passenger capacity with an annual growth rate will be 4.9%. Twenty years later, the world aviation transportation have done fee guest kilometers to the current 160%. With the expansion of market, flight frequency increasing, aircraft sorties will be rapid growth, top 10 years at an average of 3.8%, due to the limitation of the infrastructure capacity constraint the air transport continue to develop, so after 10 years of growth rate is only 2.7%. The forecast period for an average of 3.3%. By the year 2019, the world aviation transport aircraft sorties every day will be 90% higher than today. Due to aircraft take-off and landing vehicles can’t keep pace with the growth of the traffic development, therefore, airlines have to in each landing vehicles to provide more seats, namely 10 years before each landing vehicles provided seating will be from the current average 158 up to 16
|
